KARACHI: Pakistan is set to become the world’s 23rd biggest economy by 2040 based on its predicted gross domestic product (GDP) rank which currently sits at 39th position, according to a United States intelligence report, which is issued every four years.
The assessment was included in this year’s Global Trends report by US National Intelligence Council (NIC), which is designed to help policymakers and citizens anticipate the economic, environmental, technological and demographic forces that are likely to shape the world through the next 20 years.
“Our intent is to help policymakers and citizens… prepare for an array of possible futures,” the authors wrote, noting they included input from diverse groups, from American students to African civil society activists.
“Global economic activity has been tilting toward Asia during the past 40 years, reflecting its higher rate of economic growth in comparison with the rest of the world, large population, and reduction in grinding poverty — a trend that almost certainly will continue through at least 2030 and perhaps through 2040,” the report said.
It said that some of the most populous countries in Asia are positioned to be among the world’s largest economies by 2040, even as their per capita incomes lag behind that of advanced economies.
“Asia’s record growth during the past 40 years has resulted in a convergence between Asian standards of living and those of middle and even high-income economies,” the document stated.
In 2020, China and other developing Asia countries contributed 18 per cent and 7 per cent respectively to global GDP. “If these trends continue, by 2040 developing countries in Asia are projected to account for approximately 35 per cent of global GDP, with India and China as the largest contributors at 29 per cent of global GDP,” the report quoted Oxford Economics.
It said that the faster economic growth in Asia could lead to some of the most populous countries being among the world’s largest economies by 2040. “For example, faster economic growth in India — on track to be the most populous country by 2027 — could propel the country into the ranks of the world’s three largest economies,” the report stated.
Similarly, it said, faster growth in Indonesia — the world’s fourth most populous country — could allow it to break into the ranks of the top 10 economies by 2040.
However, the reported added, their standards of living or per capita GDP are likely to remain well below those of advanced economies.
Pakistan likely to be below median age threshold in 2040
The report said that during the next two decades, most countries with large youth populations will be challenged to meet the basic needs of their populations, particularly in light of the social volatility often associated with youth bulges.
“In Sub-Saharan Africa, the median age is likely to rise only slightly to 22 by 2040, still well short of the median age threshold of 30 which is often associated with higher levels of human development.”
It said that more than one-third of Sub-Saharan Africa’s population will be younger than 15 in 2040, compared with only 14 per cent of the population in East Asia.
“Other populous countries that most likely will still be below the median age threshold in 2040 are Afghanistan, Egypt, and Pakistan,” the report added.
Source: Express Tribune